property/hax

Tools · Rent vs Sell

Should you keep the rental, or sell and invest the proceeds?

Every landlord asks this eventually. The honest answer depends on appreciation, cash flow, the tax bill at sale, and what you'd actually do with the money. This calculator runs both paths on your numbers, so you can see the trade in dollars instead of vibes.

It models depreciation, recapture, capital gains, a 1031 option, and a stock-market alternative. Adjust the inputs, watch the chart move, and then bring the result to a CPA.

Worth knowing

  • This property has negative cash flow today. The case for keeping it rests on appreciation, not income.
  • The mortgage pays off in year 22. Cash flow steps up from there.

Keep & rent · year 40

$3,029,820

Net worth, after the tax bill if you sold then.

Sell & invest · year 40

$3,448,967

Portfolio after tax drag. Starts at $267,813 net proceeds today.

Difference

−$419,147

Sell ahead by 12.2%

Break-even

Year 34

When the two paths flip places.

Suggestion

Selling and investing looks better in this scenario, by about $419,147 over 40 years.

Educational only. Not financial or tax advice.

Projection

Net worth over time

After the tax bill in either scenario. The dashed line marks when the mortgage is paid off.

Year by year

The full table

Showing key columns. Rotate or use a larger screen for the full breakdown.

YrCash flowKeepSellΔ
1-$1,736$290,982$283,747$7,235
2-$1,210$315,826$300,798$15,028
3-$669$342,404$319,041$23,363
4-$114$370,781$338,562$32,218
5$455$401,021$359,450$41,571
6$1,039$433,193$381,799$51,394
7$1,639$467,369$405,713$61,656
8$2,021$503,386$431,301$72,085
9$2,386$541,289$458,680$82,609
10$2,758$581,147$487,975$93,172
11$3,138$623,033$519,322$103,711
12$3,525$667,022$552,862$114,160
13$3,921$713,192$588,750$124,441
14$4,324$761,624$627,151$134,473
15$4,734$812,403$668,240$144,163
16$5,153$865,616$712,204$153,411
17$5,580$921,353$759,247$162,106
18$6,014$979,709$809,582$170,127
19$6,457$1,040,781$863,440$177,340
20$6,907$1,104,671$921,069$183,602
21$7,366$1,171,484$982,732$188,752
22payoff$11,000$1,241,325$1,048,711$192,614
23$28,836$1,313,906$1,119,309$194,597
24$29,536$1,389,060$1,194,849$194,211
25$30,254$1,466,880$1,275,676$191,204
26$30,989$1,547,462$1,362,161$185,301
27$31,742$1,630,904$1,454,701$176,204
28$31,031$1,717,372$1,553,718$163,655
29$30,338$1,806,972$1,659,666$147,306
30$31,147$1,899,751$1,773,030$126,721
31$31,977$1,995,826$1,894,330$101,495
32$32,826$2,095,313$2,024,122$71,192
33$33,696$2,198,337$2,162,998$35,339
34$34,586$2,305,024$2,311,596-$6,572
35$35,497$2,415,507$2,470,596-$55,089
36$36,430$2,529,921$2,640,725-$110,804
37$37,385$2,648,411$2,822,764-$174,353
38$38,362$2,771,121$3,017,545-$246,425
39$39,362$2,898,205$3,225,962-$327,757
40$40,385$3,029,820$3,448,967-$419,147

Important

How to read this, and what it isn't.

This calculator is educational and uses simplifying assumptions. Passive rental losses are treated as suspended (most owners are above the $150k AGI phase-out for the $25k special allowance), so they do not offset W-2 income in the year incurred. Depreciation is straight-line over 27.5 years. Capital gains and recapture use flat rates instead of your actual stacked brackets, and the alternative investment grows at a constant rate with no volatility or sequence-of-returns risk.

The 1031 toggle models the deferred-tax dollars as if you could redeploy them anywhere. A real 1031 requires like-kind real estate within strict timelines, so treat that mode as a best-case "what's the deferral worth" view, not a literal plan.

Real outcomes will differ. This is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Before you act on it, please talk to a CPA and a financial advisor. If you'd like a referral to either, I'm happy to introduce you.

Want a second pair of eyes?

Let's walk through your numbers together.

I'll review your inputs, sanity-check the assumptions, and tell you honestly which side of the math your situation actually lands on. No pressure to do anything after.

Book a 30-minute call